Reverse Moneyball: The 2025 Phoenix Suns

This year’s Phoenix Suns were the most expensive NBA team ever assembled and arguably the worst value for money team in league history. Despite the most expensive roster ever, the Suns found themselves outside the playoffs and even the play-in. They currently employ two elite scorers in Durant and Booker as well as Bradley Beal who at least offensively is still a good third option. The team also employed Tyus Jones, Royce O’Neal, Grayson Allen and Monte Morris who are all good veteran role players capable of being contributors on playoff teams. Additionally Damion Lee, Nick Richards, Mason Plumlee and Bol Bol have all found themselves being serviceable NBA players at various points in their respective careers. The talent level is there, so why are they so bad?

Constructing an NBA roster is not simply about talent accumulation. There are clear trends in roster construction and play style amongst the league's most successful teams and it feels like the Suns have ignored all of them. The NBA is in its weak link era, meaning the team who has the weakest link is typically the loser in any playoff series rather than whichever team has the strongest link (best player). Having a deep team with no clear weak points is the path to success in today’s NBA, just look at this year’s final. The Suns are stuck in the past, putting out a lineup with two truly elite offensive engines and some pretty lackluster depth. They are crying out for good role players. Can you imagine how good this team would be if they had… lets say a Cam Johnson or maybe Mikal Bridges? I can certainly picture those guys fitting in seamlessly around Devin Booker. All jokes aside, trading Mikal and Cam for Kevin Durant was meant to be a statement from new owner Matt Ishbia that he was serious about winning, instead he made a statement that he does not understand roster construction. The Suns made a finals run with Devin Booker and Chris Paul as their offensive engines just four years ago by surrounding them with great role players. The same formula that was used to build that Suns team seems to have been employed by both finals teams this season. Get a star who can run the offence and be your closer, surround them with guys who can shoot and defend. It’s a simple formula, yet teams always seem to overcomplicate it. The Suns instead went all in on building a big three of Durant, Beal and Booker. Not only are we past the days of big threes being a pathway to a championship, but these three just don’t fit together. It feels like the Suns just added the first two stars they could find a deal for rather than finding guys that complement Booker. Booker, Beal and Durant all like to attack from the same areas of the floor and do not help to create advantages for one another. A lot of the advantages in a basketball game come in the form of mismatches, something you’re not going to get a lot of when you run actions with players who have similar physical profiles and skill sets. Even the most simple action in basketball, the pick and roll is based on players with different skills and physical profiles trying to get defenders to switch, thus creating a mismatch. You can’t do that with three jump shooters who enjoy similar spots on the floor and are being guarded by quite similar players.

The Suns roster construction has also pigeonholed them into a style of basketball that goes against every trend in recent times. The three most efficient shots in basketball are free throws, shots at the rim and threes. Efficient NBA offences are built around these three shots. This year's Suns ranked 24th in free throw attempts, 30th in attempts at the rim and twelfth in three point attempts, all while ranking third in mid-range attempts. Defenses can’t defend everything, typically defenses in the modern NBA are more at peace with giving opponents a mid-range shot as they sell out to contest shots at the rim and on the perimeter. Mid-range shots are incredibly tough relative to the amount of points they generate, thus why defenses aren’t trying all that hard to stop them. It feels as if Phoenix has decided to just try to get as many mid-range shot makers as possible and just lean into what the defence is giving. Taking what the defence is giving you sounds good at face value, but building an offence around trying to be the most efficient team at the least efficient shot is just incredibly stupid. Threes, layups and free throws are the most efficient shots in basketball, why stray away from them. The Suns have gone against everything we know that works in the modern NBA, it feels like they have this irrational belief that they are above the rules of roster building. I suspect Matt Ishbia (new owner of the Suns) has been at the center of a lot of their recent bad decisions. It tracks that a billionaire would think they can exist outside the rules and standards that apply to everyone else, however the NBA does not work that way. Depth, chemistry, patience, defence and efficiency all matter when building a championship level team. You can’t just outspend everyone else and magically exist outside of the norms. If there is a formula to success in the NBA right now, it is to have a capable closer surrounded by guys who can shoot the three and defend. Ideally players you draft and are still on rookie deals or rookie scale extensions. Essentially the formula is a star that you drafted or traded for early in their career like Devin Booker, surrounded by role players sort of in the mold of let's say… a Mikal Bridges or Cam Johnson (sorry Suns fans). Suns owner Matt Ishbia is probably used to buying his way out of problems, he’s going to have to learn rather quickly that you can’t do that in the NBA. Team building is about building slowly, hitting on your draft selections and clever asset management in order to build a group of guys that fit well together. Gone are the days where you can put together three superstars and surround them with rookies and guys on vet minimums. The Suns desperately need to reset and it seems likely they will trade Durant this offseason. If I were them, I would also give some serious thought to trading Devin Booker as they lack the assets to build around him properly. Their championship window is firmly shut. In a packed western conference where they are much closer to the Utah Jazz than they are to Oklahoma City, it may be time for them to start from scratch.